Life Insurance

Why GLP-1 Matters Here

Obesity is a primary driver of the leading causes of death in the United States: cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, certain cancers, sleep apnea with cardiac complications. A population-wide reduction in obesity rates therefore has direct and quantifiable effects on mortality curves that life insurers model actuarially.

What the Data Shows

Munich Re analyzed a de-identified dataset of 41 million lives with linked prescription and mortality data from 2015 to 2025 and projects 0.2 to 0.5 percent annual mortality improvement attributable to GLP-1 adoption over a 20-year period. Swiss Re projects up to 6.4 percent cumulative US mortality reduction by 2045.

RGA's central scenario projects 3.5 percent US mortality reduction by 2045 with an upside scenario reaching 8.8 percent.

Analysis

These figures are material to life insurance pricing and reserve assumptions: when projected mortality improves, insurers can price policies lower while maintaining margin, or hold pricing and expand margin, and reserves set aside against future claims can be reduced. These figures represent a repricing event unfolding in slow motion across the industry's actuarial assumptions.