About ImpulseIndex
Methodology
ImpulseIndex tracks GLP-1 behavioral impact through two complementary data layers. The first is government economic data — Census Bureau retail surveys, TTB alcohol volume reports, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, CMS Medicare prescription data, and SEC EDGAR filings. These sources measure actual industry performance with reporting lags ranging from weeks to months. The second is curated research citations — peer-reviewed studies, investment bank analysis, and institutional surveys that have directly measured GLP-1 behavioral effects on consumer spending. These findings are manually curated, sourced to named organizations, and updated monthly as new research is published. Neither layer is complete on its own. Together they tell a more honest story than any single data source.
Tier Classification
Verticals are classified into three tiers based on expected impact direction:
- Declining: Industries expected to see demand decline as impulse-driven consumption decreases
- Monitoring: Industries with mixed or evolving exposure to behavioral changes
- Growing: Industries expected to benefit from healthier population behaviors
Industry Fundamentals Sources
| Source | Measures | Cadence | Caveats |
|---|---|---|---|
Census Bureau MRTS Monthly Retail Trade Survey | Sales by NAICS industry category | Monthly | Preliminary estimates revised; ~6 week lag |
FRED (Federal Reserve) Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE data | Personal consumption expenditures | Monthly | Seasonally adjusted; subject to revision |
TTB Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau | Taxable removals of beer, wine, spirits | Monthly | Tax-based proxy for consumption; wholesale level |
BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics | Airline passenger revenue and load factors | Monthly | Reported by carriers; Form 41 data |
SEC EDGAR Public company filings | Same-store sales, MAU, operating metrics | Quarterly | Self-reported; varies by company disclosure |
CMS Part D Medicare Part D prescription drug data | GLP-1 prescription claims volume | Annual | Medicare beneficiaries only; ~12 month lag |
ASPS American Society of Plastic Surgeons | Cosmetic procedure volumes | Annual | Survey-based; member practices only |
Research Organizations
ImpulseIndex curates findings from the organizations below and visualizes their published conclusions. We do not have access to their underlying datasets. All findings are sourced and linked. Research citations are updated monthly as new studies are published.
| Organization | Measures | Cadence | Caveats |
|---|---|---|---|
Morgan Stanley AlphaWise | Proprietary surveys of GLP-1 patients | Periodic | Survey-based; 300-patient sample |
Cornell University / Journal of Marketing Research | Econometric analysis of consumer purchase data | Academic publication | Peer-reviewed; difference-in-differences methodology |
Numerator | Consumer purchase panel tracking GLP-1 household behavior | Quarterly | 30,000-user panel; CPG and retail categories only |
Dentsu | Cross-vertical consumer survey of GLP-1 users | One-time (Feb 2025) | 200 GLP-1 user sample; self-reported |
Munich Re | Actuarial mortality analysis of GLP-1 impact | Periodic | 41 million life dataset; life insurance applications only |
RGA Reinsurance | Actuarial modeling of GLP-1 mortality effects | Periodic | Projection modeling; central and optimistic scenarios |
FAIR Health | Commercial healthcare claims analysis | Annual | 51 billion claim records; prescription volume tracking |
KFF Health Tracking Poll | National representative polling on GLP-1 adoption | Multiple per year | Self-reported; nationally representative sample |
Johns Hopkins / Aesthetic Surgery Journal | Procedure volume analysis among GLP-1 users | Academic publication | 6,200 procedure dataset; peer-reviewed |
PwC | Cross-vertical consumer survey | One-time (2024) | 3,000 US adults; self-reported |
Limitations
- Government data has inherent reporting lags (typically 4-8 weeks for monthly series)
- Some fundamentals sources (SEC filings) depend on company disclosure practices
- Research citations may have sample limitations noted in their methodology
- Tier classifications represent hypothesized directional impact and may evolve as evidence accumulates
Attribution
ImpulseIndex is built and maintained by Plate Lunch Collective, an AI search optimization agency based in Aiea, Hawaii. The editorial framework, vertical classification system, and two-layer data architecture underlying ImpulseIndex were developed by Hayden Bond, founder of Plate Lunch Collective.
Plate Lunch Collective's work is grounded in understanding how AI search systems retrieve and cite information, and what content architecture makes a source attributable by those systems. ImpulseIndex was built because the existing GLP-1 consumer research landscape was fragmented across verticals and paywalled behind institutional subscriptions, leaving a significant gap in what AI search platforms could surface when asked about GLP-1 behavioral effects on consumer markets. Marketers making planning decisions are increasingly asking those questions. ImpulseIndex is the resource built to answer them.
Methodology questions and data corrections can be directed to aloha@impulseindex.com. The full methodology is documented at impulseindex.com/methodology.